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Dempster Still Perfect at Home

06/23/2008

BY Aaron Gleeman

Pirates' Snell to have MRI on elbow

Braves' Teixeira belts three homers in win

Blue Jays place Shaun Marcum on DL

Pujols set to make his return on Thursday

Zambrano heads to the DL with shoulder strain

Chipper out for weekend with quad strain

Mariners' Bedard exits game with back spasms

Ryan Dempster improved to 9-0 at Wrigley Field by holding the White Sox to one run over eight innings Sunday night, leading the Cubs to their 14th straight home victory and MLB-best 48-28 record. Dempster spent his first four seasons in Chicago as a mediocre reliever, going 9-20 with a 4.10 ERA. He did surprisingly well converting save chances over that span with an 85-percent success rate, but was stripped of ninth-inning duties and moved back to the rotation this year. Dempster had limited success as a starter early in his career thanks largely to shaky control that included 4.7 walks per nine innings through his first 162 starts. He's still far from a control artist, but handing out 38 walks through 102.2 innings represents a 30-percent improvement and is the biggest reason for his surprising success. He's always been able to rack up plenty of strikeouts, but came into this season with a 5.00 ERA as a starter and a 4.11 ERA as a reliever. Sunday's outing pushed him over the 100-inning mark for the first time since 2003, so the huge jump in workload may catch up to him in the second half. Beyond that, his secondary numbers-strikeouts, walks, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio-suggest that Dempster has performed more like a 3.75-4.00 ERA pitcher than the 2.63 mark that he's currently sporting. While his improvements are legitimate and he's not likely to fall apart completely, Dempster is a good sell-high candidate.While the Cubs keep rolling without Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, here are some other notes from around baseball .

Justin Duchscherer has followed the same path as Dempster, beginning his career as a starter, spending 2004-2007 in the bullpen, and switching back to the rotation this year. Duchscherer is a little different in that most of his starting was done in the minors and he thrived in the bullpen, but the career progression is similar and the success this season is just as startling. He held the Mariners to one run over 7.2 innings Sunday, improving to 8-4 while slicing his ERA to 1.99.He's yet to allow more than three runs in a start and has given up two runs or fewer in 11 of 12 outings. However, Duchscherer spent most of April on the disabled list with a strained biceps and has a history of elbow and hip injuries, so like Dempster he's no sure thing to handle the workload increase. My guess is that Duchscherer has a better chance of maintaining an ERA below 3.50 all season, but Dempster has a better chance of staying healthy for 15 more starts.

Ian Snell struggled Sunday against the Blue Jays and complained of elbow soreness afterward, with the Pirates scheduling him for an MRI exam Monday. "We are going to run some tests," manager John Russell said. "Hopefully it's not anything major, but we'll get some tests run and go from there. He didn't feel right today and he has a little irritation." An elbow problem would help explain Snell's decline this season, although he hadn't reported any trouble prior to Sunday. Snell faced 1,695 batters between 2006 and 2007, striking out 20.4 percent while walking 7.9 percent. This season his strikeout rate has dipped to 15.4 percent and has walk rate has risen to 11.8 percent. That adds up to 25 percent fewer strikeouts and 50 percent more walks, which along with slightly decreased velocity is certainly the type of performance that you'd expect from someone who's been pitching through elbow problems.

After sitting out over a year following Tommy John surgery, Mike Gonzalez returned from the disabled list last week and immediately took over as the Braves' closer, tossing a perfect ninth inning to pick up a save in his first appearance. He then waited four days for his next appearance and struggled in a non-save situation Sunday, allowing three runs on three hits, including serving up a homer to a left-handed batter (Jeff Clement) for just the third time in his career.Gonzalez's command understandably doesn't appear to be very sharp yet, but the velocity on both his fastball and slider are fairly close to where they were in his prime. He still works at around 91-94 miles per hour with his fastball and 78-82 miles per hour with his slider, so expect Gonzalez to have at least reasonable success in the closer role as long as he remains healthy. That's a big question mark given his history, but his stuff looks good enough to get the job done.

AL Watch

Vicente Padilla held the Nationals to three runs over seven innings Sunday and the unlikely trio of Padilla, Cliff Lee, and Mike Mussina is tied for the AL lead with 10 wins . Ivan Rodriguez reached base four times Sunday, including a solo homer that was just his second long ball of the season . After knocking in a run with a first-inning double Sunday, Nick Markakis drew walks in four straight trips to the plate . Kevin Youkilis delivered a walk-off homer in the 13th inning Sunday and is now just three homers short of matching his career-high of 16 set last year . Andy Pettitte shut out the Reds for six innings Sunday and has now allowed a total of one run over his last three starts following back-to-back ugly outings to begin the month . Milton Bradley (quadriceps) singled as a pinch-hitter Saturday, but then missed his fifth straight start Sunday . With Freddie Bynum designated for assignment Sunday, Alex Cintron takes over as the Orioles' starting shortstop . He has just one homer this month, but Justin Morneau has still driven in 15 runs over the past 11 games.

NL Watch

Prince Fielder had just one homer through 20 games, but after going deep twice Sunday he has 15 homers in 54 games since . Randy Wolf totaled 10 strikeouts in Sunday's loss to the Tigers, reaching double digits for the first time in 25 starts . Mark Teixeira smacked three homers Sunday, giving him 30 homers and 111 RBIs in 129 games with the Braves . Clint Barmes returned from the disabled list Sunday and will split time at second base with Jeff Baker, sending Ian Stewart back to Triple-A . Brandon Webb was cruising along Sunday until the Twins scratched together a five-run fifth inning, dropping him to 2-4 since beginning the year 9-0 . Eric Patterson went 2-for-3 with a homer and three runs Sunday, but likely won't get enough playing time to be a fantasy asset . Manny Parra handed out a career-high six walks Sunday, yet won his fifth straight start . Seeing increased action with Cesar Izturis (hamstring) sidelined, Aaron Miles collected five hits Sunday to raise his batting average from .293 to .313 .

Daily Dose favorite Fred Lewis collected three hits and two walks Sunday while swiping his 13th base.

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What's the Pitch?

by George Winkler

The search for good pitching is never-ending.
Yet for those of us who are fantasy lifers, we enjoy every minute of this noble pursuit. Coaxing a good start or two off the waiver wire is like finding that corner bar where you and your friends can relax, eat and drink for cheap and not worry about your wardrobe. It's worth the effort.

But when the top three pitchers available in your league are Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn and Dana Eveland, you start to realize that maybe what those "Sex-and-the-City" types say is true: There just aren't any good men -- I mean good pitchers -- left these days.

Does Jorge Campillo suddenly look good to you? Is Brandon Backe's start next week against Milwaukee getting you all hot and bothered? Is John Lannan among the Fab Four on your call list? Hmmm, looks like somebody might have a problem.

It could be too much commitment -- commitment to the cause of finding the next great pitcher sauntering down the waiver wire; commitment to the players you drafted; commitment to you being an all-knowing fantasy god.

But when you're considering adding a potential WHIP wrecker like Daniel Cabrera to your mixed-league roster, it's time to step back and realize that a trade might be a better answer to your pitching woes.

And it just so happens that now is the perfect time to pull off that deal. You've had two months to evaluate your team, so it's not too early to judge what you have. Plus, even that last-place owner still has enough interest to get a deal done.

You've heard the formula before. Deal from strength to shore up a weakness. Look to fill the needs of your trade partner, and before you know it, a match will be made. Hey, didn't Carrie Bradshaw (aka Sarah Jessica Parker) say that in one of her fictional columns? Hey, did I just say that in one of my real columns? Quick, somebody revoke my "Man" card.

Of course, it's not always that easy. After all, nothing that good comes easily. You'll have to work at it. But would you rather sit on the sideline when it comes to trading and be left cheering for Wil Ledezma to last longer than five innings instead?

ROTATION ROUNDUP

Red Sox. Justin Masterson is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts this season, including the last two as Daisuke Matsuzaka 's injury replacement. But Sunday's start against Seattle could be his last in the big leagues for awhile. Dice-K says he'll be back when he's eligible to return from the DL on June 14, which happens to be Masterson's turn in the rotation. But even if he gets sent down again, Masterson has proved he's worth future fantasy consideration. Plus, his performance -- along with that of Bartolo Colon's -- has hurt Clay Buchholz. And who didn't want to see Buchholz in a little pain after his reported relationship with a Penthouse Pet?

BULL SESSION

Yankees. Moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation leaves a glaring hole in the Yankees' bullpen. When your setup options are LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth and a slew of minor league call-ups, it figures to be more difficult for the Yankees to maintain leads. The Yankees are tied for 11th in the majors in holds with 28, but Chamberlain had 12 of those. And even with Joba in the 'pen, the Yankees were well behind the Cardinals, who led the majors with 48 holds through Wednesday. What does this all mean? Some wins and save opportunities could go by the boards while Joba "rules" the rotation.

FORGETTING NO FORMATS

You're probably tempted to spend some money on a stud pitcher in Ultimate Fantasy Baseball now that you've had time to build franchise value. But it's still too early to put all your eggs in one basket. Stick to looking for bargain two-start pitchers like the Twins' Scott Baker. If Baker ($2.08 million) looks good after coming back from a groin injury in today's start against Baltimore, he has the Indians and Brewers next week -- two teams ranked 28th and 24th, respectively, in team batting average. Sounds like a guy begging for some value to be added to him.

WHO IN THE HECK IS . . . ?

John Grabow, RP, Pirates. If you read our site regularly, you'd know, because it seems like we did a million updates on him last year as we chronicled his return from an elbow injury. Now that he's healthy, he has built a nice little K rate (25 Ks in 29 IP) and has four vulture wins (putting him on pace for 11 this season). Could it be that we've found some buried treasure among the Pirates? Well . . . a look at Grabow's history indicates he's overachieving.

PICKUP OF THE WEEK

Radhames Liz, SP, Orioles. Much like his teammate Daniel Cabrera , Liz has been known for wildness despite having electric stuff. In Liz's first start this week, we saw both the good and bad on display. But manager Dave Trembley told The Baltimore Sun he's going to give the 24-year-old Dominican chances to pitch. Liz has piled up some impressive K numbers in the minors, so if he shows improved control, he'll be a solid contributor in AL-only leagues.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Josh Banks, SP, Padres. Banks has yet to be scored upon in 17 innings this season, including last week's nine-inning gem against the Giants. But this is a small sample size, and Banks was not all that dominant in six minor league seasons (41-34, 4.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). The Padres' offense doesn't provide much support, either. However, with injuries to Jake Peavy and Shawn Estes opening rotation spots, Banks could earn more time -- even when Peavy gets back -- with another strong outing.

CLOSER WATCH

Rafael Soriano picked up the save Tuesday night in place of John Smoltz , who will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. As long as Soriano is healthy, he'll get the save chances for Atlanta instead of Manny Acosta. . . . Jason Isringhausen (hand) could begin a rehab assignment as early as next week, but it's still worth holding on to Ryan Franklin . There's no definitive timetable for Izzy's return, and there's no guarantee he'll be the team's closer when he comes back. . . . Word out of Milwaukee is that Salomon Torres could remain the closer even when Eric Gagne returns. Gagne (shoulder) is out indefinitely. Good call by Milwaukee after Gagne's meltdowns earlier this season. . . . Is Trevor Hoffman done? We've heard the doubters before only to see "Hells Bells" rack up another 40-save season. He struck out the side to earn a save Wednesday night, but he was coming off a bad loss against the Giants. He might not be done yet, but he's looking more like a 30-save guy this year than a 40-save stud.

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SELL' EM High

Thursday June 5, 2008 6:33PM EDT

RP Sherrill not slowing down in saves category Baltimore closer George Sherrill pitched another scoreless ninth inning, giving up one hit, to secure his 20th save in 22 chances. Sherrill struck out two and lowered his ERA to 3.04. Fantasy owners should be torn by what to do with Sherrill. On one hand, he's been one of the top closers in baseball all season. On the other, his saves have started to get fewer and further between as the Orioles begin to look like the team they were predicted to be. You may try and pawn Sherrill off for some talent but if not, he remains a viableoption in all leagues.

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