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Sifting through the streaks
June 20, 2008
By Matthew Lutovsky
This happens all the time when you search by raw numbers or overall rank.
The key to searching by time-span is knowing what to look for (and what to ignore). Here are the pros and cons of the seven-day, 15-day, and 30-day searches:
The key to searching by time-span is knowing what to look for (and what to ignore). Here are the pros and cons of the seven-day, 15-day, and 30-day searches:
Seven-day
Pro:
You find out who's hot right now. If you're looking for immediate help, this is the search for you. Sure, anyone can have a good week, but there's a decent chance that player will continue their hot streak into the next week.
Con:
Stats can be skewed. This pertains to what I talked about last week -- one game can inflate a player's totals. Sometimes, a player might have only had one good game in the seven-day span, but it's enough to get them near the top of the search results. The most untrustworthy stat for this is RBIs. Just one three-run double or a random grand slam can make a player's RBI total look a lot better than normal. The best stats to look at are hits and runs. They give you a good sense of how "locked in" the player is at the plate and what kind of protection he has hitting behind him.
Stats can also be skewed based on where a guy played that particular week, so it's important to check out his game log. If he had games in Colorado, Philadelphia or Cincinnati (to name a few hitter-friendly parks), that could have inflated his numbers.
Stats can also be skewed based on where a guy played that particular week, so it's important to check out his game log. If he had games in Colorado, Philadelphia or Cincinnati (to name a few hitter-friendly parks), that could have inflated his numbers.
Pro:
It's the best way to find the most recent call-ups and guys returning from injury. Even a 15-day search might omit some of these guys. Of course, if it's a top prospect (such as Chase Headley) or high-profile player, chances are you'll be aware of them. Nonetheless, it's easy to overlook/forget about some lower-profile but still helpful players.
Case in point:
Earlier this year, I was looking for a middle infielder who could help with steals. After doing a search, I settled on sticking with Felipe Lopez, who was slumping at the time. Had I narrowed my search to "past seven days," I would've surely seen Alexi Casilla's name and added him. Trust me when I say Casilla would've been far more helpful than Lopez.
Con:
It's pretty useless for pitchers. Often, the seven-day search for pitchers will only cover one start. That doesn't help you much. Reserve this type of search for offensive players.
15-day
15-day
Pro:
Lets you know who's hot and has some staying power. This is probably the best overall way to search for immediate offensive help. Many of the guys on the 15-day list also will be on the seven-day list ... only they've been hot even longer.
Con:
The hot streak could be coming to an end. If it's a random player, 15 days of solid baseball might be all they have in them. Thus, they might be at their expiration date when you get around to picking them up. In fact, they might already have started their decline five days ago, but they're still on the list because of the first 10. Nevertheless, I still think this is the "best" time-span to search by.
30-day
Pro: Find out who's had sustained, consistent success. As discussed in a previous column, the 30-day search is better for those looking for long-term help. It's useful when you're simply looking for upgrades as opposed to the next "superstar." By filtering your search by the past 30 days, you get more useful results than you'd get by simply using "season rank" as your search criteria.
Con: Less likely to find significant, immediate offensive help. Let's face it -- if a player is really performing well, they'll be claimed before 30 days are up. So, like I said, this search is better suited for long-term upgrades.
Pro: Works great when searching for pitchers. The 30-day search will usually encompass five or six starts -- a good number when searching for productive pitchers. Seven days is too small of a sample size, and even 15 days usually doesn't get the job done. But 30 days is a far better indicator of who's been pitching well lately and who's worthy of adding. It's definitely a better indicator of a pitcher's value than searching by season rank. A lot of guys have rough starts but round into form later in the year. The 30-day search filters out those rough starts and gives you an idea of who you can count on.
Now that we know what to look for, let's put it into practice by analyzing some of the highest-ranked, likely available players based on each time-span.
30-day
Pro: Find out who's had sustained, consistent success. As discussed in a previous column, the 30-day search is better for those looking for long-term help. It's useful when you're simply looking for upgrades as opposed to the next "superstar." By filtering your search by the past 30 days, you get more useful results than you'd get by simply using "season rank" as your search criteria.
Con: Less likely to find significant, immediate offensive help. Let's face it -- if a player is really performing well, they'll be claimed before 30 days are up. So, like I said, this search is better suited for long-term upgrades.
Pro: Works great when searching for pitchers. The 30-day search will usually encompass five or six starts -- a good number when searching for productive pitchers. Seven days is too small of a sample size, and even 15 days usually doesn't get the job done. But 30 days is a far better indicator of who's been pitching well lately and who's worthy of adding. It's definitely a better indicator of a pitcher's value than searching by season rank. A lot of guys have rough starts but round into form later in the year. The 30-day search filters out those rough starts and gives you an idea of who you can count on.
Now that we know what to look for, let's put it into practice by analyzing some of the highest-ranked, likely available players based on each time-span.
Seven-day
OF/1B Marcus Thames, Tigers. There's a good chance Thames has already been picked up in your league (he's owned in 51 percent of SN leagues). After all, he has hit six home runs in his past six games. Thames did it in tough hitters parks -- Detroit and San Francisco. He is certainly hot right now, but don't expect it to last. Not only is playing time a concern, but there also are these two telling numbers from his seven-day splits: seven runs scored and eight RBIs. When a guy has hit six homers, you'd expect his runs and RBIs to be higher.
3B/OF Russell Branyan, Brewers. Branyan also is on a tear. He's homered in each of his past three games, giving him four overall in the past seven days. He's only scored five runs, but he does have eight RBIs (to go along with a .389 average). Branyan looks to be a great quick-fix, but the odds of him lasting are very slim. This is the same guy who has bounced around seven organizations in the past 10 years, failing to hit higher than .257 in any of his seasons in the majors. He strikes out a ton (eight in the past seven days), and he's much better at home than on the road. Eight of his home runs -- including all four this past week -- have come at Miller Park. After a three-game home series with Baltimore this weekend, Milwaukee goes on the road for 10 straight. Uh-oh. Plus, he might lose playing time when Rickie Weeks comes back from his knee injury.
3B/OF Russell Branyan, Brewers. Branyan also is on a tear. He's homered in each of his past three games, giving him four overall in the past seven days. He's only scored five runs, but he does have eight RBIs (to go along with a .389 average). Branyan looks to be a great quick-fix, but the odds of him lasting are very slim. This is the same guy who has bounced around seven organizations in the past 10 years, failing to hit higher than .257 in any of his seasons in the majors. He strikes out a ton (eight in the past seven days), and he's much better at home than on the road. Eight of his home runs -- including all four this past week -- have come at Miller Park. After a three-game home series with Baltimore this weekend, Milwaukee goes on the road for 10 straight. Uh-oh. Plus, he might lose playing time when Rickie Weeks comes back from his knee injury.
OF Coco Crisp, Red Sox. Crisp has been doing a bit of everything over the past seven days. He's hitting .313 with four runs, three homers, seven RBIs and two steals. It should be noted both steals came in one game, and all of his games in that time span have come in three of the best hitters parks in baseball -- Fenway, Great American Ball Park and Citizens Bank Park. However, it is encouraging that he's put up those solid numbers while not even starting two games because of interleague and a hand injury. If his hand isn't seriously hurt (Red Sox officials don't think it is), grab Crisp and ride out this hot streak. It's going to end sometime, but as long as David Ortiz is hurt and the Red Sox are playing in AL parks (they only have one more road interleague series), Crisp should play almost every day. He has the all-around game to help your squad.
15-daySP Braden Looper, Cardinals. Over his past three starts, Looper has gone 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 11 Ks in 22 innings. And it wasn't as if he had overly favorable matchups. Sure, facing the Royals at home was nice, but Houston and Cincinnati on the road weren't exactly cakewalks. Looper is one of those inconsistent pitchers who can get into grooves and really help a fantasy team. Of course, when he's bad, he tends to be really bad. His next start is at Detroit, and he's at Kansas City after that. He actually pitches considerably better on the road (3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP compared to 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home), so have no fear about grabbing him and putting him in your rotation. You won't get many strikeouts, but the peripherals will help.
15-daySP Braden Looper, Cardinals. Over his past three starts, Looper has gone 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 11 Ks in 22 innings. And it wasn't as if he had overly favorable matchups. Sure, facing the Royals at home was nice, but Houston and Cincinnati on the road weren't exactly cakewalks. Looper is one of those inconsistent pitchers who can get into grooves and really help a fantasy team. Of course, when he's bad, he tends to be really bad. His next start is at Detroit, and he's at Kansas City after that. He actually pitches considerably better on the road (3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP compared to 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home), so have no fear about grabbing him and putting him in your rotation. You won't get many strikeouts, but the peripherals will help.
15 day
OF Jason Kubel, Twins. It seems like we're always waiting for Kubel to be a consistent producer, yet he keeps disappointing. But he's hot right now, hitting .359 with 11 runs, four homers and nine RBIs over the past 15 days. Playing time will always be an issue -- Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire hates lefty/lefty matchups with Kubel -- but, as we all know, Kubel has the potential to help fantasy teams over the long haul. Is he finally putting it together? I have my doubts, but he's still worth a flier.
2B/1B/OF Jeff Baker, Rockies. Yes, Baker's 15-day splits look impressive -- .414, 10 runs, three homers, six RBIs, one SB -- but you have to look a little deeper to see he's only played in nine games during that time span. Some might say that makes his numbers even more noteworthy, but I say that shows he's on the bench far too often. Yes, the fact he's hit a homer in each of his past three games might buy him some more playing time, but it's far from a lock. Baker's versatility gives him value, but it's tough to count on a platoon player who hits significantly better at home than on the road.
OF Jason Kubel, Twins. It seems like we're always waiting for Kubel to be a consistent producer, yet he keeps disappointing. But he's hot right now, hitting .359 with 11 runs, four homers and nine RBIs over the past 15 days. Playing time will always be an issue -- Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire hates lefty/lefty matchups with Kubel -- but, as we all know, Kubel has the potential to help fantasy teams over the long haul. Is he finally putting it together? I have my doubts, but he's still worth a flier.
2B/1B/OF Jeff Baker, Rockies. Yes, Baker's 15-day splits look impressive -- .414, 10 runs, three homers, six RBIs, one SB -- but you have to look a little deeper to see he's only played in nine games during that time span. Some might say that makes his numbers even more noteworthy, but I say that shows he's on the bench far too often. Yes, the fact he's hit a homer in each of his past three games might buy him some more playing time, but it's far from a lock. Baker's versatility gives him value, but it's tough to count on a platoon player who hits significantly better at home than on the road.
30-day
SP Ricky Nolasco, Marlins. I've written about Nolasco before, but the guy just keeps pitching well. He's had one bad start since May 3, and if you take that outing away, his stats over the 30 days are even more impressive. As it stands, he's 5-1 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 30 Ks in 39 innings. Without that start at Atlanta on June 5, he's 5-0 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 28 Ks in 33.1 innings. Yes, the kid is pitching great, and he deserves to be owned by more than 23 percent of teams in SN leagues.
OF David DeJesus, Royals. I've never been a big fan of DeJesus -- he does some things well, but nothing spectacular -- but there's no denying how hot he's been the past month. DeJesus is hitting .342 with 17 runs, five homers, 19 RBIs and three steals over the past 30 days. That kind of all-around production is worth a starting spot on most teams. DeJesus is a poor bet to keep this up -- after all, his career-high in homers is nine -- but maybe this is the year he finally breaks out, stays healthy and has a solid season. Either way, he certainly should be owned by more than 55 percent of teams in SN leagues.
SP Kenny Rogers, Tigers. The old man is up to his old tricks. Rogers has gone 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 13 Ks in his last 41.1 innings. Obviously, the K rate is poor, but it's tough to fault a guy pitching that well. He's gone at least seven innings in each of his past five starts, and he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those contests. However, you shouldn't get too excited over Rogers. He's faced the Giants, White Sox, Indians, A's, Angels and Mariners during the past month, and only the White Sox have an above-average offense in that group. Rogers is worth an add right now, but monitor him closely.
OF David DeJesus, Royals. I've never been a big fan of DeJesus -- he does some things well, but nothing spectacular -- but there's no denying how hot he's been the past month. DeJesus is hitting .342 with 17 runs, five homers, 19 RBIs and three steals over the past 30 days. That kind of all-around production is worth a starting spot on most teams. DeJesus is a poor bet to keep this up -- after all, his career-high in homers is nine -- but maybe this is the year he finally breaks out, stays healthy and has a solid season. Either way, he certainly should be owned by more than 55 percent of teams in SN leagues.
SP Kenny Rogers, Tigers. The old man is up to his old tricks. Rogers has gone 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 13 Ks in his last 41.1 innings. Obviously, the K rate is poor, but it's tough to fault a guy pitching that well. He's gone at least seven innings in each of his past five starts, and he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those contests. However, you shouldn't get too excited over Rogers. He's faced the Giants, White Sox, Indians, A's, Angels and Mariners during the past month, and only the White Sox have an above-average offense in that group. Rogers is worth an add right now, but monitor him closely.
Associate editor Matt Lutovsky is a fantasy baseball expert for Sporting News
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