Waiver Wire, When Should I Pick Up ?

Two-week streaks
May 23, 2008
By Matthew Lutovsky

How do you know when it's "time" to pick up a player?
Truth is, there's no magic formula. Baseball is an inherently streaky game. You can't point to one good performance like in fantasy football. And, if the increased production is a result of increased playing time, you can't always count on that lasting.
So, when do you make the move? When does a hot streak officially make a player "add worthy" (not to be confused with the Elaine Benes-coined "sponge worthy")?
Unless a player is performing obscenely well, I usually set the bar at around two weeks. Yes, any random player can have a good two-week stretch and then disappear into fantasy oblivion, but 14 days is usually a good indicator of what a player has to offer, at least for the short term.
Of course, if you're grabbing a player off the waiver wire, you're usually looking for a quick fix. And that's often what these pickups provide. You're just trying to catch them while they're hot and ride it out. If you're lucky, you'll get production all season. But, far too often, you get a decent couple weeks before you send them back to the wire and look for a new "two-week wonder."
With that in mind, here's a look at 10 of the hottest players since May 7 who are likely available in your league.

Ramon Vazquez, 2B, SS, 3B,
Rangers. Vazquez is hitting .429 with a homer and 11 RBIs over the past two weeks. He bats near the bottom of the Rangers' order, so it's tough to count on him for a ton of runs and RBIs, but he's been consistent enough to earn everyday player status. And, with Hank Blalock coming back as a first baseman, he should continue to get regular playing time. His versatility makes him a valuable addition to any team, and it's always nice having a guy who plays his home games in Rangers Ballpark. Coming up, Vazquez will face the Indians and Rays on the road, then head back to Texas for a 10-game homestand. He's worth an add.
Dioner Navarro, C, Rays. He's not the flashiest of names, but there's no denying the .375-1-10 two-week stretch Navarro just posted. He's hitting .417 at home this year, and, wouldn't you know, Tampa has a 10-game homestand starting this weekend. Grab him if you're getting weak, inconsistent production from your backstop.

Randy Winn, OF,
Giants. Winn has been on a run-scoring tear lately, crossing the plate 13 times in the past two weeks. He also hit .344 with two homers, five RBIs and two steals in that span. Winn hits slightly better on the road, where his next six games will be. He figures to face some tough pitching in Arizona next week, but with Jake Peavy and Chris Young out for next weekend's home series with the Padres, Winn and the Giants should have some favorable matchups coming up.
Gerald Laird, C, Rangers. Laird has some of the same things going for him that aforementioned teammate Ramon Vazquez does. He's been hot lately (.324, one homer, 12 runs, five RBIs) and he plays his home games in a hitters park. However, he's competing for playing time with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which means you never know when he might sit. And he actually hits better on the road (.301 compared to .255 at home), so he doesn't get the normal bump from Texas' home games.

Matt Joyce, OF,
Tigers. Joyce has hit .294 with five homers, eight runs and eight RBIs over the past two weeks. He still doesn't play every day, but if he keeps swinging the bat like that, he will -- especially if manager Jim Leyland realizes that only one at-bat against lefthanded pitching isn't enough proof that Joyce can't hit southpaws. Joyce will play in some tough hitters' parks coming up (six games in Detroit, six in Seattle and Oakland), so leave him on the wire for now, but keep tracking him.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies. He was a sleeper heading into the draft, but owners who drafted him were left with nightmares early on. Jimenez seems to be figuring things out, though. Despite being 0-2 in his past three starts, Jimenez has posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Throw in 17 Ks in 20.2 innings and you have a mixed-league starter, folks. Even sweeter? Two of those three starts were at Coors Field. However, tread carefully -- Jimenez's next two starts are at Citizen's Bank Park in Philadelphia and at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Not only are those bad pitchers parks, but Jimenez has also struggled on the road in general this year (5.76 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). If he performs well in just one of those outings, pick him up.

Ricky Nolasco, SP,
Marlins. Horrendous -- that's the best way to describe Nolasco's first five starts this year. But he's come around lately, going 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17 Ks in his past three outings. He even beat Brandon Webb heads-up on Wednesday night. Nolasco will be challenged in each of his next two starts -- at the Mets and at Philadelphia -- but he's actually pitched better on the road than at home this year. It wouldn't be a bad idea to pick him up (after all, a decent K-rate is hard to find), but I'd sit him against Philadelphia. Nolasco is considerably worse against lefthanders (.291 batting average against and seven homers allowed compared to .222 and zero homers vs. righties), and the Phillies can trot out Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Geoff Jenkins against him.

Jason Bergmann, SP,
Nationals. Bergmann was sent down after three horrible appearances to start the year, but he's been lights out since getting called up. In his two starts since the promotion, he went a combined 14 innings and gave up eight hits, five walks and no runs against the Mets and Phillies, respectively. He struck out 14 batters and earned one win. Bergmann has had success in the past, so it's not farfetched to think he can keep pitching well. He'll get Milwaukee at home, then pitch at Arizona. You might want to make him throw another good game before you add him, but he's definitely someone to watch.

Manny Parra, SP,
Brewers. Like the rest of the pitchers on this list, Parra got off to a rough start this year, but he's bounced back nicely. Over his past three games, he's compiled a 2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 14 Ks in 17.1 innings. He's finally starting to look like the top-prospect he's been billed as. Two concerns -- he pitches considerably better at home, and he's still not going very deep into games. Those concerns could cause problems in his next two starts -- at Washington and against Houston, a team that's seen the 11th most pitches in the majors this season.
Octavio Dotel, RP, White Sox. Dotel has had one hiccup in the past two weeks -- a three-walk, two-run, zero-plus IP affair against the Giants last Sunday. But, if you take that away, he's compiled a 1.08 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 14 Ks in 8.1 innings over the rest of that span. That kind of strikeout production is tough to beat. Plus, Dotel would likely take over as Chicago's closer if anything happens to Bobby Jenks. He's worth an add if you like carrying a middle reliever.