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Players in the News
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Darren Oliver
Oliver accepted the Angels' arbitration offer before ...Oliver accepted the Angels' arbitration offer before the Sunday night deadline.

Fantasy Spin: Of the 24 free agents offered arbitration, only Oliver and David Weathers accepted. This means Oliver will be back on a one-year deal with the Halos, despite receiving some interest on the free agent market.

News:
Laird has officially been dealt to the Tigers for pitching prospects Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo, according to MLB.com.

Spin: After trading away Ivan Rodriguez and announcing that Brandon Inge would play third base, it was pretty clear that the Tigers were going to acquire a catcher this offseason. By trading for Laird, they've also decided that they're not comfortable with opening the season with Dusty Ryan as their starting catcher. Laird will get hurt by the change in ballparks, but in he gets some job security.

News:
Reds GM Walt Jocketty vehemently denied a Dayton Daily News report that a deal to send Dye to the Reds for Homer Bailey and others had been struck, the Reds' official site reports.

Spin: It's no secret that Dye has been the subject of trade talks, and that the Reds at least at one point were involved, but apparently those talks haven't been recent. "Wrong. It's not even close," Jocketty said. "We haven't had any discussions with the White Sox since before Thanksgiving."

News:
Weathers accepted the Reds' arbitration offer before Sunday's deadline, the Reds' official site reports.

Spin: This means he'll be back for one more season with the team, presumably at a rate higher than the $2.75 million he made with them in 2008.

The Mets are desperate to move Castillo to create a spot for Orlando Hudson, according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.

Fantasy Spin: The only way to do it would be to exchange Castillo's contract for another of similar value, which is a difficult task. When the Mets asked the Rangers about a Castillo-for-Vicente Padilla ? a swap that would require the Rangers to move Ian Kinsler to left field ? they were told, "No thank you." The Mets will either need to take on someone with an equally bad contract or eat a lot of cash to move Castillo, which will be a more likely occurrence.

Francisco Rodriguez
Mets GM Omar Minaya is expected to ...Mets GM Omar Minaya is expected to meet face-to-face with Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman, as well as possibly Kerry Wood or his agents, during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, the NY Daily News' Mets blog reports.

Fantasy Spin: Minaya may make offers to several or all of the players, similar to what he did several years when looking for a catcher, with the first person to accept the offer to get the job as the closer. K-Rod is expected to demand the highest salary, with the Mets unlikely to go the five years, $75 million he originally wanted. Jon Heyman of the SI.com is reporting that Mets management has been internally discussing a three-year contract, and might include a fourth-year vesting option to Rodriguez.

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Harden should start playoff opener

By Barry Rozner
Daily Herald Columnist
Updated: 8/28/2008 7:17 AM

Baseball people rarely talk about tomorrow, let alone a month from now.

Superstitious as they are, and terrified of upsetting the baseball deities, they don't speak of the postseason until the moment they clinch.

But since the playoffs are inevitable, and having zero belief in jinxes and curses, I fear not a bit tackling a hypothetical Cubs playoff rotation.

As we've said all along, Rich Harden is and will be the Cubs' best pitcher as long as he's healthy, so the Cubs will watch his rest carefully while pitching him in as many games as possible.

At the same time, Ryan Dempster is the best among those who have been here all year, and untouchable at Wrigley Field.

That leaves the erstwhile ace, Carlos Zambrano, who throughout his career has been better on the road (.654) than at home (.571), and in 4 postseason starts, while never having won, he's been very good in two and both were on the road.

So here's a view as it stands now, five weeks before the first postseason game against Arizona:

The first thing the Cubs would have to do is sit Zambrano down and explain why he's not leading off.

If he pouts, breaks things, or cries, and looks like he'll tank it, this won't work at all and you scrap the idea before you start.

But if they believe he'll buy into it, you go with Harden first at home in Game 1 of the NLDS.

This allows you to come back with Harden in a decisive Game 5 at home on five days' rest if necessary, and it also gives you the option of using Ted Lilly in relief after 5 innings of Game 1 if Harden has reached his pitch count, forcing batters to look at a lefty throwing slow curves after the right-handed Harden fires bullets.

Lilly also has three days' rest after his inning of work and should be good to go in Game 4, if necessary.

Dempster goes in Game 2 at home and is also available for Game 5 at home on his normal four days' rest if Harden isn't ready.

Game 3 is Zambrano on the road, and if needed, Lilly goes in the fourth game. Game 5 at home is Harden or Dempster.

Either way, one of them gets an extended rest and is ready to go in Game 1 of the NLCS, which arrives eight days after Game 1 of the NLDS.

Let's assume a four-game NLDS, which the Cubs win, 3-1. They have Harden back for Game 1 of the NLCS on seven days' rest and Dempster for Game 2 on seven days, a fabulous scenario for your two best pitchers in October.

You should leave for the middle three of the League championship series up 2-0, especially if it's the Brewers and CC Sabathia is forced to pitch in a Game 5 of the NLDS for Milwaukee.

You have Zambrano in Game 3 on the road, Lilly in Game 4, and Harden comes back to pitch Game 5 on a comfortable five days off in between starts.

If a Game 6 is necessary, Dempster goes again on six days' rest at - guess where? - Wrigley Field, where he should win and send the Cubs into the World Series for the first time since Moses was in diapers.

Worst case, the Cubs have to play a Game 7 at home, and you've got Zambrano pitching. At that point, he'll probably be ready to tear someone's head off and pitch the game of his life - assuming he doesn't break his hand punching a wall between innings.

Even under those circumstances, if Harden has to pitch Game 5 in the NLCS, he's available to come back in Game 1 of the World Series on six days' rest.

And even if Dempster starts Game 6 of the NLCS, he's ready for Game 2 of the Series on five days' rest.

If Zambrano goes in Game 7 of the NLCS, he'll have six days off before the Cubs need him in Game 3 of the World Series, and Lilly goes in Game 4 with almost two weeks off unless he pitches in relief, which is quite possible.

But, aye, there's the rub.

Harden would have to come back in Game 5 of the Series on the standard four days' rest, and that's pushing it for him at that time of year.

Dempster would be better suited for that, so if the Cubs can win the NLCS early, and don't need him for Game 6, they might want to go to Dempster in Game 1 and Game 5 of the Series, with Harden in Games 2 and 6, when he'll have five days off between outings.

That might be the smart choice, and it means Dempster pitches at home in Game 5, whereas in Games 2 and 6 he's on the road.

Tough call.

As for Game 7 of the World Series?

Carlos Zambrano to win it all, a chance to clinch all three series for his team, and a solid selling point when they try to convince him this will work.

If you were betting, you'd say the Cubs will go the safe route, avoid anger, criticism and second guessing, and go with Zambrano first, followed by Dempster, Harden and Lilly.

But does it make the most sense?

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Fantasy Deadline Trade'in Think Twice

From AM New York
Last-minute fantasy baseball trade? Think twice first
By Kyle Stack Special to amNewYork
July 30, 2008
Fantasy Baseball
posted by: Tabloid Paige

Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline looms Thursday, but that doesn't mean it should necessarily have an impact on fantasy leagues.

With fantasy trade deadlines typically set for the first couple weeks in August, many owners might feel the need to shift players based on real-life changes of address.

Here are four strategies for single-year and keeper league players to consider before signing off on a trade.
Nearly every season, effective closers on losing teams are traded to playoff-contending teams to replenish tired and slumping bullpens. Already this month, Washington's Jon Rauch (17-for-22 in save opportunities) and Pittsburgh's Damarso Marte (5-for-7) of the Pittsburgh Pirates were sent packing to serve as setup men; Rauch for the Diamondbacks and Marte for the Yankees.

While the moves strengthen the real-life recipient teams, they throw a wrench into the operation of fantasy pitching staffs. If you own a closer who is rumored to be on the trading block, protect yourself from losing saves by adding his potential successor.Keeper leaguers shouldn't hastily trade Holliday out of fear his production will decrease with a new address. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you never make, so try not to outthink yourself.

Starters are still tough to predict
Seattle Mariners lefty Erik Bedard was the toast of the fantasy world last summer after riding a nine-start streak in which he posted a 7-0 record, a 1.71 ERA and a 84/16 K/BB ratio in 63 1/3 innings. Once he was traded to the Seattle Mariners in February, it was assumed that Seattle's pitchers' palace of a ballpark – Safeco Field – would elevate Bedard to a staff ace. However, the 29-year-old has weathered multiple injuries, little run support from a pitiful offense to pitch a solid, yet disappointing, season.

For every CC Sabathia, who has thrived at his new address with the Milwaukee Brewers, there is a Bedard. When it comes to starters, it is truly buyer beware.

Dangle reliable veterans for promising prospects
Keeper leaguers who own struggling teams should follow the path blazed by real-life general managers of below-average teams: trade older, reliable players for young, promising "keepers." Just about every fantasy league has a team on the cusp of the playoffs, but in need of a veteran who can give the squad a shot in the arm. Identify any appealing veteran players on your squad and turn them into highly-touted youngsters who aren't yet producing at the rate they will in a couple years.

Target future stars such as outfielders Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles and the Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, as well as Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw.
Real-life trades affect relievers' fantasy values, but have less of an effect on position players
Well, at least elite position players. They're the ones who can typically make adjustments no matter their hitting environment. Take Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday, an elite fantasy player who has just a career .278 batting average and a .792 on-base plus slugging percentage away from Colorado's hitter-friendly Coors Field. MLB teams are balking at trading for Holliday, but that's due more to Colorado's high asking price than whether the three-time All-Star can maintain his high level of play with a new team.

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Todays Game and Starting Pitchers

Todays Games And probable Starters
Posted by Dennis Paige

Pitchers with best chance to win.

AL
Bos: D. Matsuzaka, LAA: Jered Weaver,

NL
NYM: J. Santana, SD: J. Peavy

(All times Eastern)

American League

Minnesota at N.Y.Yankees, 7:05 p.m. K. Slowey (6-6, 4.26)@ D. Rasner (5-7, 4.97)

Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 p.m. S. Marcum (5-4, 2.65)@ G. Olson (6-5, 5.79)

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 7:10 p.m. D. Braden (1-0, 4.80)@ Sonnanstine (10-4,4.58)

Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 p.m. K. Rogers (7-6, 4.62)@ K. Davies (3-1, 4.59)

Texas at C. White Sox, 8:11 p.m. M. Buehrle (7-8, 3.69)@ L. Mendoza (2-3,6.28)

Cleveland at LA Angels, 10:05 p.m. M. Ginter (1-0, 0.00)@ J. Weaver (8-8, 4.03)

Boston at Seattle, 10:10 p.m. D. Matsuzaka (10-1, 2.65)@ R. Dickey (2-4, 3.73)


National League

Atlanta at Florida, 7:10 p.m. C. Morton (2-2, 5.93)@ R. VandenHurk (0-1, 11.81)

Philly at N.Y. Mets, 7:10 p.m. J. Blanton (5-12, 4.96)@ J. Santana (8-7, 3.10)

San Diego at Cincinnati, 7:10 p.m. J. Peavy (7-6, 2.66)@ J. Cueto (7-9, 4.92)

Pittsburgh at Houston, 8:05 p.m. P. Maholm (6-6, 4.10)@ J. Cassel (1-0, 6.28)

Milwaukee at St. Louis, 8:15 p.m. J. Suppan (5-6, 4.71)@ K. Lohse (12-2, 3.35)

LA Dodgers at Colorado, 9:05 p.m. C. Kershaw (0-2, 4.42)@ U. Jimenez (5-9, 4.20)

Chicago Cubs at Arizona, 9:40 p.m. J. Marquis (6-5, 4.44)@ Y. Petit (0-1, 3.06)

Wash. at San Francisco, 10:15 p.m. J. Bergmann (1-6, 4.03)@ B. Zito (4-12, 5.62)

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