Wednesday, October 22, 2008

World Series tonight

October 22, 2008
The Final Round
by John Perrotto


ST. PETERSBURG One of the more interesting questions going into the beginning of the World Series tonight is how much of a factor David Price might play for the Rays. The rookie left-hander recorded the final four outs, including a bases-loaded strikeout of J.D. Drew to end the eighth inning, to get credit for the save in the 3-1 win over the Red Sox in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series on Sunday night. It was the first save of Price's major league career, which had consisted of one post-season inning and 14 regular-season innings to that point. The Rays are without closer Troy Percival, who has missed the postseason with back tightness after recording 28 saves in the regular season, so it would seem logical for Price to step into that role.

Rays manager Joe Maddon isn't ready to commit to that however, and will continue to let the situation dictate who will get the last out, just as he has done throughout the postseason after doing likewise in the regular season once Percival had to head to the disabled list with hamstring and knee injuries. Price, with his 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, still figures to be a factor at some point, as the Phillies boast such dangerous left-handed hitters as first baseman Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley in the middle of their lineup. Furthermore, the Phillies' two best hitters on the bench, infielder Greg Dobbs and outfielder Matt Stairs, also hit from the left side. "We'll use whoever is available and we feel is the best guy to get that last out," Maddon said. "The great thing about our bullpen is that as great as 'Percy' was for us all year, we've had a lot of guys get the last out. There are a bunch of guys who have experienced that and have the talent to finish off a game. It could be David if it's the right move to make, but it could be any number of guys and that's a great luxury to have."

The Rays had five other pitchers beside Percival record saves during the regular season: Dan Wheeler had 13, Grant Balfour had four, left-hander J.P. Howell had three, and Jason Hammel and lefty Trever Miller had two each. The Rays' two post-season saves have been picked up by Wheeler and rookie Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 first-year player draft from Vanderbilt. The way Maddon has handled his bullpen in the postseason recalls Bill James' long-standing assertion that managers should use their best relievers in the highest-leverage situations regardless of the inning, instead of having a designated closer always pitching the ninth. In an era when relief strategy is dictated almost entirely by the save rule, the only team in recent memory to try James' approach was the 2003 Red Sox, and it was quickly abandoned after some difficult late-inning losses early in the year.

As a result, there's irony in the Rays' beating the Red Sox, in part because of the unconventional way in which Maddon deployed his relievers. That's before adding in that James works for Boston as a special advisor. Maddon believes that James' theory could work over a full season in the right circumstances. "There are certain relievers who I call 'ahead' or 'tied guys,' pitchers you feel comfortable in using in the late innings when you're ahead or tied," Maddon said. "I believe you need to have at least four of those relievers to make the committee thing work, because you need flexibility and depth knowing that all four are not always going to be available on a given day. We're able to do that with our club because we have a lot of good relievers, as the numbers indicate."

The Rays led the major leagues with 15.23 WXRL in the regular season after having the league's worst mark last year at -1.76. Six Rays finished among the top 34 in the AL in WXRL this season: Howell (4.64, fifth), Balfour (3.43, 10th), Wheeler (2.09, 23rd), Percival (1.67, 29th), and Trever Miller and Chad Bradford (1.52, tied for 33rd). And then there is Price, whose performance in Game Seven of the ALCS was reminiscent of what rookie right-hander Francisco Rodriguez did for the 2002 Angels as they won their lone World Series title. Maddon was the bench coach for manager Mike Scioscia on that team, and he watched Rodriguez go 5-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 11 post-season relief appearances after having only 5 2/3 innings of regular-season experience. However, Maddon said Rodriguez's success has had no bearing on him using Price in relief, and that they cannot be compared. "K-Rod had been a relief pitcher in the minor leagues, so he knew how to warm up fast and he was used to coming into games with guys on base and a lot of stuff going on," Maddon said. "David has been a starter, and that is definitely where his future lies. It also makes what he did in Game Seven so amazing."

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS

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