MLB top 10 teams

August 15, 2008
Prospectus Hit List
Streaks and Strings
by Jay Jaffe

Top 10

1
Red Sox 71-51 5-2 .614 Zink Stink: More than four years after The New Yorker heralded him as the knuckleball's Next Big Thing, Charlie Zink finally makes his major league debut, but it doesn't go well. Starting in place of injured Tim Wakefield and staked to a 10-run first-inning lead via two David Ortiz three-run jacks, Zink gets pounded (4.1 11 8 8 1 1) and is ultimately chased from a wild 19-17 slugfest which ends with the Sox on top. He's sent back to Pawtucket while the Red Sox try to patch their rotation with Paul Byrd. They'd do well to restore Justin Masterson to the front five, particularly as he's been limited to janitorial duty since moving to the bullpen; his .564 Support Neutral Winning Percentage dwarfs any of the team's other fifth-starter options.
2
Cubs 74-47 5-1 .611 A 6-1 burst helps the Cubs absorb the momentum of the Brewers' latest run, and there's nary a dull moment here. Skipper Lou Piniella gets hot under his collar over Alfonso Soriano's hot-dogging and creates a stir by suggesting that Kosuke Fukudome needs to improve his performance. Mired in a 2-for-29 slump, the right fielder promptly snaps out of it by collecting four hits in a doubleheader, but his .240/.338/.360 performance since May 2 still isn't much to write Chunichi about.
3
Rays 73-47 5-1 .589 The Rays set a franchise record with their 71st win, but it's a painful week as they lose both Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford to the DL. Longoria leads both the Rays and all rookie hitters in VORP, and has a wrist fracture that will sideline him until September, while Crawford, who's having an off season (.273/.319/.400), has a torn tendon in his finger that could end his 2008. The return of Rocco Baldelli may help cover for the latter, but this offense, which is 10th in the league in scoring but third in EqA, needs another big bat more than ever.

4
White Sox 68-52 5-2 .564 With four straight homers by Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, and Juan Uribe, the White Sox tie a major league record and extend their major league lead in the long-ball department; they have eight more than the Phillies and 23 more than the Rangers, who rank second in the AL. Alas, the Sox lack the power to accelerate the healing of the wounded, so they'll be without Jose Contreras the rest of the way after he tore his Achilles tendon. That's a tough loss, because despite having the rotation's highest ERA by a hair, Contreras is third on the team in SNLVAR and Support Neutral Winning Percentage.
5
Angels 75-44 4-1 .559 West Coasting: It's a breezy week for the Angels, who sweep the Yankees at home and open up a whopping 15½-game lead in the AL West. They're now 11.9 games above their third-order projection, a figure that's tied for fourth all-time and less than one win off the 2004 Yankees' all-time mark of 12.7, all of which should add some suspense as the team coasts to its fourth division title in five years. The Halos are 23-13 in one-run games and an even more impressive 21-5 in two-run games, records that speak well of a bullpen that's second in the league in WXRL.
6
Brewers 70-52 6-1 .556 An eight-game winning streak helps last week's dugout drama blow over as the Brewers assert their hold on the NL Wild Card. Coming up big is CC Sabathia, who shuts out the Nationals (9 5 0 0 1 9) and runs his line to 7-1, 1.55 ERA since being traded from Cleveland; his 6.1 SNLVAR tops the majors. Back spasms keep Ryan Braun from joining the party, but Gabe Kapler's 13th-inning home run eases the pain a bit; the supersub is hitting .304/.337/.490 from off of the bench.
7
Mets 65-56 5-2 .550 Is Manuel's Cap Too Tight? With the pressure of Billy Wagner's absence clearly impeding the flow of oxygen to his brain after a bullpen meltdown, Jerry Manuel threatens to move a starter—either Oliver Perez or John Maine—into the temporarily vacant closer role. This from the skipper of a team that's consulted the Bureau of Missing Persons to locate the likes of Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, and Brian Stokes to patch their rotation. Manuel would do well not to tempt fate with Perez riding a 1.71 ERA and 55/18 K/BB over his last eight starts and Maine having tossed five innings of shutout ball in his return from the DL, albeit against a Nationals lineup that's about as threatening as your niece's tea party nephew's tee-ball team.
8
Yankees 64-57 1-5 .540 Farnsworth's Revenge: The Yankees deal themselves a crippling blow by going 3-7 on "the worst road trip since the Joad family went to California." They've now lost 12 of 18, a span during which their Playoff Odds have shrunk from 34.8 to 4.6 percent. Ian Kennedy flops in his return to the battered rotation and winds up back in Scranton, but the bigger trouble is the bullpen, which is torched for an 8.78 ERA on the trip, including a 10-run meltdown in Anaheim that drops them to seventh in the league in WXRL.
9
Phillies 64-57 2-5 .534 Phlop: A four-game sweep by the Dodgers knocks the Phillies out of first place in the NL East for the first time since July 29. The rotation's best efforts (3.52 ERA this month) are going to waste between an offense that has picked the wrong time to cool down (3.3 runs per game on .206/.312/.371 hitting) and a bullpen that's showing signs of wear (4.46 ERA), with Brad Lidge resting his shoulder, Tom Gordon nearing a point of reckoning on his elbow and the remaining unit frittering away leads. Not good.
10
Cardinals 68-56 4-3 .529 Red Alert: The Cardinals' playoff aspirations take a hit in the standings and the training room as they lose ground to torrid Chicago and Milwaukee clubs and are forced to scratch Chris Carpenter from at least one start due to a strain at the back of his shoulder. The 2005 Cy Young winner has compiled a 1.88 ERA in three abbreviated starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, but the rest of the rotation has failed to back him up; they've yielded a 4.94 ERA since the All-Star break while surrendering 1.8 HR/9, and the team is now just 15-13 in the second half.