Fantasy Deadline Trade'in Think Twice

From AM New York
Last-minute fantasy baseball trade? Think twice first
By Kyle Stack Special to amNewYork
July 30, 2008
Fantasy Baseball
posted by: Tabloid Paige

Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline looms Thursday, but that doesn't mean it should necessarily have an impact on fantasy leagues.

With fantasy trade deadlines typically set for the first couple weeks in August, many owners might feel the need to shift players based on real-life changes of address.

Here are four strategies for single-year and keeper league players to consider before signing off on a trade.
Nearly every season, effective closers on losing teams are traded to playoff-contending teams to replenish tired and slumping bullpens. Already this month, Washington's Jon Rauch (17-for-22 in save opportunities) and Pittsburgh's Damarso Marte (5-for-7) of the Pittsburgh Pirates were sent packing to serve as setup men; Rauch for the Diamondbacks and Marte for the Yankees.

While the moves strengthen the real-life recipient teams, they throw a wrench into the operation of fantasy pitching staffs. If you own a closer who is rumored to be on the trading block, protect yourself from losing saves by adding his potential successor.Keeper leaguers shouldn't hastily trade Holliday out of fear his production will decrease with a new address. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you never make, so try not to outthink yourself.

Starters are still tough to predict
Seattle Mariners lefty Erik Bedard was the toast of the fantasy world last summer after riding a nine-start streak in which he posted a 7-0 record, a 1.71 ERA and a 84/16 K/BB ratio in 63 1/3 innings. Once he was traded to the Seattle Mariners in February, it was assumed that Seattle's pitchers' palace of a ballpark – Safeco Field – would elevate Bedard to a staff ace. However, the 29-year-old has weathered multiple injuries, little run support from a pitiful offense to pitch a solid, yet disappointing, season.

For every CC Sabathia, who has thrived at his new address with the Milwaukee Brewers, there is a Bedard. When it comes to starters, it is truly buyer beware.

Dangle reliable veterans for promising prospects
Keeper leaguers who own struggling teams should follow the path blazed by real-life general managers of below-average teams: trade older, reliable players for young, promising "keepers." Just about every fantasy league has a team on the cusp of the playoffs, but in need of a veteran who can give the squad a shot in the arm. Identify any appealing veteran players on your squad and turn them into highly-touted youngsters who aren't yet producing at the rate they will in a couple years.

Target future stars such as outfielders Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles and the Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, as well as Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw.
Real-life trades affect relievers' fantasy values, but have less of an effect on position players
Well, at least elite position players. They're the ones who can typically make adjustments no matter their hitting environment. Take Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday, an elite fantasy player who has just a career .278 batting average and a .792 on-base plus slugging percentage away from Colorado's hitter-friendly Coors Field. MLB teams are balking at trading for Holliday, but that's due more to Colorado's high asking price than whether the three-time All-Star can maintain his high level of play with a new team.