Need Help Check The Waiver Wires

by Eric Ferguson

Players for '09 and beyond:

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates. Whether he stays at third or moves to first, Pedro's got the bat to hold down a big-league job. He was hurt for most of his junior season at Vanderbilt, but there's 30-homer potential here with a good average to go with it.
2. Aaron Crow, SP, Nationals. OK, so he's a little bit of a homer pick, but this Mizzou stud struck out 127 batters in 107.1 innings on his way to a Golden Spikes Award. It's not like the Nats' rotation is particularly tough to crack at the moment, either.
3. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Athletics. I have a fever, and the only cure for it is more fantasy-worthy middle infielders. Rickie's little brother doesn't quite have his power, but Jemile will hit for average and a little pop. His calling card, though, will be stealing more than his fair share of bases.
Burning Questions for AL-only owners
Is Nick Swisher really this bad? I'll freely admit Nick Swisher is a charter member of the Eric Ferguson Man-Crush Society, but even I have gotten a little fed up with the Swish Dawg and his .221 average and fistful of homers. But fear not: There is reason for optimism. Swisher's BABIP stood at .256 before Sunday's action, nearly 30 points below his career average. It's odd that this run of bad luck has coincided with a career-high line drive percentage, but the dice are bound to tumble in his favor eventually. Given that Swisher had a good weekend, the comeback might already be underway.
I want to add J.P. Howell, but I'm worried that others might make fun of me. Is he worth the ridicule? You bet he is, partner. Truth fact: I have him in a mixed league. Checking in at No. 70 in the latest RP rankings, Howell has actually been a top-12 AL reliever in Roto points. Now that he seems to have found his niche in the bullpen, Howell is in line for some vulture wins along with decent K, ERA, and WHIP contributions. His fielding-independent ERA (FIP) is 3.69, so it's not like he's pitching way over his head.
Take Your Pick, Young Catcher Edition: Kurt Suzuki or Jarrod Saltalamacchia? Suz-y and Salty entered Sunday's action with identical .257 averages; Suzuki had a homer and a steal, Salty had three homers and no steals. Upon closer inspection, neither of them had particularly noteworthy BABIP's, so making the call came down to two words: "po" and "tential." Salty's bat is the one more likely to hit 12 to 15 homers, and it's only a matter of time before the Rangers find a way to get him in the lineup more often (even with less than half as many at-bats, Salty has produced nearly as much Roto value as Suzuki). Throw in Suzuki's home/road splits (he's hitting .207 on the road), and the choice gets even easier.
Burning Questions for NL-only owners
Tom Gorzelanny has put together two non-terrible starts in a row. Is this the start of a trend? As much as I loved T-Gor last season, that's how much he grinds my gears now. Even allowing that he didn't pitch well enough to deserve a sub-4.00 ERA in '07 (or '06 for that matter), he was still above-average. This year, not so much. His 29/43 K/BB ratio is second-worst among pitchers with at least 50 innings, and he has a 6.83 ERA despite a below-average .281 opponents BABIP. And let's not forget that he had a 5.01 ERA second-half ERA last year. Bottom line: He's been terrible for a while now. So, no, two OK starts in a row do not a resurgence make.
Let's talk about another Pirate (because everyone wants to talk about the Pirates). Freddy Sanchez is hitting .241. If he's not giving me batting average ballast, what's the point? Indeed. The prototypical high-average middle infielder, Sanchez has run afoul of the baseball gods with a .267 BABIP, 60 points below his career average. With neither power nor speed to fall back on, Sanchez's value languishes in non-starter territory in a 12-team NL-only league. Even when he hit .304 with a homer spike (11) in '07, he was only the 13th-most productive 2B in the majors. That's why I like to avoid guys like Sanchez, who hang their hat on being able to hit .300. He'll bounce back and probably hit .280-.290, but average isn't everything -- especially when it's your only thing.
Ryan Zimmerman's injury has me up a creek without a paddle. Is this Kory Casto fellow the solution to my problem? Depending on what your league's waiver wire looks like, he's worth a shot. Casto came into '07 as one of the Nats' top offensive prospects, but that didn't result in much: a 325 OPS in 54 at-bats and a whole bunch of time spent in Columbus. After hitting .315 with three homers in 89 at-bats for Columbus this season, he has made five straight starts at third for the Nats with Aaron Boone at first, so he should continue to get chances to play during Zimmerman's absence (the length of which has yet to be determined). Best-case scenario is Casto hits for a decent average and provides a handful of homers, maybe moving to the outfield on a part-time basis when Zimmerman returns. This year's Ryan Braun he ain't.

Eric Ferguson is a freelance writer for Sporting News