Today's News, Player's to Watch

Bruce Now, Headley Soon ?

05/27/2008

BY Aaron Gleeman

LATEST FANTASY BASEBALL HEADLINES

Pedro set to return from DL on June 3

Garland, bullpen toss 12 scoreless in victory

Figgins could be headed back to disabled list

Utley drives in six as Phillies dominate Rox

Report: Reds to call up top prospect Bruce

Former pitcher Gonzalez killed by lightning

Gonzalez's homer ends marathon in San Diego

Most prospect rankings had either Evan Longoria or Jay Bruce in the top spot heading into the season and both players began the year at Triple-A. Longoria's stay there lasted all of seven games and he's likely ruled out a return to the minors by hitting .246/.319/.472 through 40 games with the Rays. A more cautious timetable made some sense for Bruce because he's 18 months younger than Longoria, but the Reds have apparently decided that they can't wait any longer.Bruce is expected to be called up Tuesday after hitting .364/.393/.640 with 10 homers and 24 total extra-base hits in 49 games at Triple-A, which is amazing production for a 21-year-old. He's a special prospect who's been dominating at Triple-A and Corey Patterson is a mediocre veteran who's been hitting .201 in Cincinnati, so with the Reds in last place it makes plenty of sense to call up Bruce assuming that manager Dusty Baker gives him most of the starts in center field. Bruce spent the final two months of last season and the first two months of this season at Triple-A, hitting .334/.375/.598 with 21 homers, 49 total extra-base hits, and 10 steals in 99 total games. There's really no way to look at those numbers from a 21-year-old center fielder and avoid seeing future stardom, but Bruce's sub par strikeout-to-walk ratio over that same stretch does suggest that he may not be ready to immediately thrive against big-league pitching.He's struck out 93 times in 405 trips to the plate at Triple-A. That works out to 23 percent, which while certainly not an alarming strikeout rate is about 30 percent higher than the NL average and would make it tough for Bruce to continue posting huge batting averages in the majors. His poor walk rate is also a concern, particularly in tandem with the lack of contact. Bruce has just 27 walks in 405 plate appearances at Triple-A and even that number is misleading. Five of his free passes were intentional, which means that he's drawn a non-intentional walk in just 5.4 percent of his plate appearances for a walk rate that would be 35 percent worse than the NL average. There's no doubting Bruce's immense talent and huge long-term potential, but a 21-year-old who has 30 percent more strikeouts and 35 percent fewer walks than the NL average while playing at Triple-A is far from a sure thing to take the league by storm right away. While Bruce tries to make my prediction of good power and a sub-.275 batting average look bad, here are some other notes from around baseball .* He's not quite in Bruce's league as an all-around prospect, but with the Padres also in last place Chase Headley could be on the verge of taking over in left field. A full-time third baseman until this spring, Headley has made the switch to the outfield at Triple-A while hitting .304/.364/.536 with nine homers and 26 total extra-base hits in 47 games. He also batted .330/.437/.580 with 20 homers and 63 total extra-base hits in 121 games at Double-A last year. Headley's been particularly hot this month, going 4-for-5 with a homer Sunday to give him a .359 batting average and 1.067 OPS in May. Meanwhile, Padres left fielders have combined to hit just .227/.327/.389 with six homers and 15 RBIs through 52 games, which works out to a .716 OPS that ranks 21st at the position among MLB teams. A 24-year-old switch-hitter with power, plate discipline, and a .303 career batting average in the minors, Headley could be up by week's end.* Chad Tracy returned from the disabled list Monday and made his season debut at first base, but the Diamondbacks may give him a chance to reclaim the starting job at third base if his surgically repaired knee proves capable of handling the position. Mark Reynolds did an excellent job filling in for Tracy last season, but has hit just .225/.308/.399 in 47 games this year, striking out in 31 percent of his plate appearances while making some ugly plays defensively. Tracy started at first base Monday, but Conor Jackson clearly has that job locked up. That leaves Reynolds and Tracy fighting for playing time at third base, and a strict platoon would make plenty of sense. Tracy is a left-handed batter who has an .879 career OPS versus righties, compared to a .608 OPS versus lefties. Reynolds hasn't shown much of a split yet, but he's only 158 games into his career and most right-handed batters prove to be significantly better against southpaws.AL Quick Hits: Melky Cabrera showed surprising power by homering six times through 31 games, but has gone 12-for-66 (.182) with zero homers in 18 games since . Joba Chamberlain is expected to throw around 55 pitches in his next outing, which is slated for Wednesday . Clay Buchholz (fingernail) made his first minor-league rehab start Sunday at Triple-A, allowing one run over four innings . Mark Grudzielanek ranked second in the league with a .331 batting average through May 18, but after going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts Monday he's now 2-for-25 since then and amazingly has gone 21 straight games without driving in a run . Jorge Posada (shoulder) went 0-for-5 in an extended spring training game Monday, but logged five innings behind the plate and is hoping to return from the disabled list next Tuesday . Kevin Youkilis was scratched from the lineup Monday with a sore hand, giving Sean Casey a start at first base . Travis Buck went 4-for-5 with a double Sunday at Triple-A and has reached base 15 times over the past five games . Paul Konerko returned to the lineup Monday after sitting out three games with a hand injury, going 0-for-6 while his teammates collected 17 hits.NL Quick Hits: Brandon Webb failed to last at least five innings Monday for the first time since 2006, allowing seven runs (four earned) versus the Braves to give him back-to-back losses after beginning the season 9-0 . Chipper Jones (back) returned to the lineup Monday and went 1-for-3 with two walks . Jason Bergmann held the Brewers scoreless for 5.2 innings Monday, giving him 19.2 straight shutout innings since being recalled from Triple-A two weeks ago . Rafael Furcal ! (back) i sn't expected to travel with the Dodgers on their upcoming road trip, making it unlikely that he'll return from the disabled list for at least another week . Derrick Turnbow has walked 15 batters over 4.2 innings since being demoted to Triple-A earlier this month, posting a 14.54 ERA and 4.62 WHIP . With the Reds' pitching staff a mess after Sunday's marathon 18-inning game, Bronson Arroyo will start Wednesday on short rest . Russell Branyan started at third base Monday for the second straight game, but went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts . Kosuke Fukudome hit .348 with 14 extra-base hits through 30 games, but after going 0-for-4 Monday he's 14-for-68 (.206) with two extra-base hits over the past 20 games.