Closers, Up and Down

by Chris Bahr

As a kid, my two biggest hobbies were sports and music. I kept my own MLB stats in one notebook, and I had another notebook that I vowed to fill up with song titles. I have a distinct memory -- from when I was probably 7 or 8 years old -- of asking my mom what would happen when they ran out of song ideas. She assured me that never could happen.
Well, I hate to correct mom while she still is basking in her Mother's Day glory, but the well of song ideas has run dry. I'm convinced of that after hearing Usher's "Let's Make Love in the Club" on the radio roughly 10 times per day. There's no other way to explain this but to say musical creativity officially is at its low point. If they hand Usher a Grammy for that nonsense, I hope he trips over the main power supply cord and unplugs the entire industry.
One thing the world will never run out of, however, is closer options on the waiver wire. In less than a week, we've seen Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne successfully plead (and pitch) out of their ninth-inning duties. And we've already seen Gagne reclaim the role for some ridiculous reason that only manager Ned Yost -- and probably Usher -- can explain. Even so, Gagne remains a bad bet going forward.
All of this instability got me thinking about closer turnover. Since the start of the season, seven of the league's 30 teams already have made changes at closer. In most cases, that was because of injuries (Indians, Braves, Nationals, Mariners), but ineffectiveness also was to blame in Milwaukee, St. Louis and Colorado. Some also would throw Toronto in the injury category, as B.J. Ryan wasn't ready for the start of the season. And if you want to get technical, Atlanta now is on its third closer -- with more changes on the way in the form of John Smoltz and Mike Gonzalez.
The lesson here is simple: You're never out of contention in the saves category. Every year at this time, I get emails from owners asking whether they should punt saves because they're already "too far behind." And I do my best to talk these wacko owners off the ledge, reminding them about guys such as Kevin Gregg . Last season, he came out of nowhere to save 32 games for a last-place team. There is at least one pitcher -- and usually more -- like that every season.
Never give up on saves, especially not this early. Staying competitive in the category is almost as effortless as composing soft-core R&B porn songs. Heck, you don't even have to make trades. All you have to do is keep up with the news and be active on your waiver wire.
ROTATION ROUNDUP
Red Sox. Adding insult to injury (broken fingernail) for Clay Buchholz owners: As the days until June 1 dwindle and as Clay Buchholz 's ERA does the exact opposite, the chances of Bartolo Colon replacing Buchholz in Boston's rotation are getting stronger. With Julian Tavarez gone, the Red Sox don't have a true long man in their bullpen, and Colon can opt to become a free agent if he isn't in the big-league rotation by June. In addition, we already know the team is concerned about keeping Buchholz's innings total low. Solution: Move Buchholz to the 'pen (once he is off the DL), and insert Colon into the rotation. AL-only owners also would be wise to pick up Colon as a replacement for Buchholz if/when this happens.
Cubs. Rich Hill out. Jon Lieber in. Sean Gallagher in. Lieber out. What's next? Well, Jason Marquis shouldn't get too comfortable. He is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in his past three starts, and he managed to do the impossible Tuesday by getting roughed up by the Padres. Marquis has two quality starts in his six starts this season, and Sean Marshall , Hill and even Lieber are candidates to replace him. Marquis beat what appeared to be uphill odds to make the rotation out of spring training, but his chances of keeping that job are roughly equivalent to the chances of "Under One Roof" winning an Emmy.
BULL SESSION
Devil Rays. There are plenty of reasons for the Rays' turnaround this season, but you can start in the bullpen. Last season, this bunch was dead last in the majors with a 6.16 ERA. This season, Tampa Bay's relievers have posted a 3.12 ERA -- tops in the majors. A three-run difference! Troy Percival has exceeded expectations and has somehow stayed healthy, Dan Wheeler has transformed back into a solid setup man and former starter J.P. Howell already has as many wins in relief (three) this season as he ever had as a starter. It adds up to great news for owners of these hurlers and for owners of the Rays' starting pitchers. Suddenly, a late-inning lead isn't merely a blown save waiting to happen.
FORGETTING NO FORMATS
By now, it's no secret that interleague play is approaching. Just as it's also no secret that many AL pitchers are going to walk to the plate wishing that the count already were 0-2. And let's not pretend the NL hitters are all like Micah Owings , either. This is a boon for those of you in NL- and AL-only leagues. Your NL starting pitchers are going to face plenty of defenseless AL pitchers at the plate, and your AL starting pitchers finally are going to get some gift-wrapped Ks when facing opposing pitchers rather than designated hitters. Be sure to maximize your matchups whenever possible.
WHO IN THE HECK IS . . . ?
There appears to be progress on the Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya front, and that's great. But the work of Clay Rapada can't go overlooked. Who? What? A Clay Rapada ? Isn't that what you're expecting your grade-school kid to make you for a Father's Day present? Nope. Rapada has posted a 0.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and eight Ks in 9.2 innings of relief for Detroit. Is he a long-term savior? No. But he is a reliable short-term option in deep AL-only leagues.
FANTASY CHEAT SHEET
Much like a well-trained teenage warrior in the Cobra Kai Dojo, a wise fantasy owner will show no mercy. That's why those of you in daily leagues should take advantage of every opportunity to pad your pitching stats. Check the pitching matchups every day to see if you can pick up the guy facing the Padres, Giants or Royals (or any team that is struggling offensively recently). Just remember to be mindful of your innings total. You don't want to give away too many innings to spot-start candidates from the waiver wire.
PICKUP OF THE WEEK
Earlier this week, the Vatican's "chief astronomer" proclaimed that it's OK to believe in extraterrestrials. Similarly, I've proclaimed that it's OK for mixed leaguers to believe in Brian Burres, Garrett Olson and Jeremy Guthrie this weekend. Nothing gets surly Orioles owner Peter Angelos as pumped up as an Orioles-Nationals interleague series, but absolutely nothing gets the Nationals' bats pumped up anymore.
KEEP AN EYE ON
Derek Lowe isn't the kind of guy to whine about an injury, but maybe he should be. Since leaving his April 23 start early with elbow tightness, he is 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA in four starts. In those starts, he allowed 38 baserunners in 21.1 innings. I'd bench him until I see a strong bounce-back effort that convinces me he is healthy. . . . What has gotten into Tom Gordon? The dude has tossed 11.2 scoreless innings since April 17, compiling a 10/4 K/BB ratio in the process. In that span, he has lowered his ERA from 11.12 to 3.63 and has put himself back on the NL-only map -- and not just because he is Brad Lidge insurance. . . . Make sure to reserve a spot on your bench for Oliver Perez . The always up-and-down lefty has a tough week ahead, with a start Saturday at Yankee Stadium and a start next week at Atlanta. That's horrible news for a guy with a 5.93 BB/9. The Braves are in the top 10 in walks, and the Yankees are a very patient team (though it doesn't show in the stats this season). Sure, Perez had a ton of success against the Braves last season (4-1, 3.03 ERA), but I'm more worried about 2008. . . . Another resurrected reliever: Before allowing an earned run Tuesday, Octavio Dotel had amassed seven consecutive scoreless appearances. And he has even more value than Gordon thanks to his 25 Ks in 16 innings pitched. In fact, Dotel fanned five batters in a two-inning outing last week.
CLOSER WATCH
Welcome back, Trevor Hoffman. I was beginning to think I'd see new episodes of "Heroes" before I'd see Hoffman back in action. His appearance this past Saturday was his first since April 30. Since reappearing, Hoffman is 2-for-2 in save chances with three Ks. The rest obviously helped, but don't expect it to be a miraculous cure. . . . In addition to Hoffman, we've had an Eddie Guardado sighting! On Tuesday, he picked up his first save since 2006. The Rangers declared C.J. Wilson off-limits that night after a long, horrible outing Monday. Here's a hint for Texas: Declare Wilson off-limits in non-save situations. In his past five non-save appearances (all since April 30), he has a 15.42 ERA. His job is safe -- for now. . . . Nice to see Masahide Kobayashi get his first save Tuesday. I've spent the past few weeks wondering why he hasn't been given a shot. Even Tuesday, it wasn't a true ninth-inning situation (he came on in the eighth to protect a 1-0 lead, Cleveland then took a 4-0 lead, and he stayed in for the ninth). Kobayashi has been the Indians' most consistent reliever all season, and Rafael Betancourt continues to struggle as the stopper. . . . So, what happens if/when everyone gets healthy in Atlanta? First, I'd expect Manny Acosta to move back into a setup role. The saves will be divvied up among John Smoltz, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Expect Smoltz to be the favorite on most nights, except when he needs a rest. But Soriano and Gonzalez will be worth owning in 5x5 leagues.